Alec Salloum
Regina Leader-Post
Decided voters in Saskatchewan are narrowly in favour of the Saskatchewan NDP, according to a recent Insightrix poll.
The razor-thin margin places the Opposition at 48 per cent as the preferred party among those who have made up their mind, notes the poll. That’s one point ahead of the government, which sits at 47 per cent.
Twenty-eight per cent of those surveyed were undecided.
But executive director of the Saskatchewan Party Patrick Bundrock questioned the accuracy of Insightrix polls.
“As you may recall, the last Insightrix poll released before the 2020 election underestimated SaskParty support by 7 points and overestimated NDP support by 3 points,” he said in an emailed statement.
The statement echoes a similar one made by Bundrock back in February, when an Insightrix poll at the time placed the NDP ahead of the Sask. Party by two per cent points. But this close to an election, which is set to take place on or before Oct. 28, he did acknowledge the narrowing race.
“The 2024 election does appear to be closer than the previous election and there are only two parties that have a chance to win the election — the Saskatchewan Party and the NDP,” said Bundrock. “A vote for any other party could split the vote and help to elect the NDP, which has happened on many occasions in the past.”
That message isn’t a new one.
“When you split the vote, you likely end up with something that you don’t like,” Premier Scott Moe said following a 2023 byelection.
His comments came after the NDP took two Regina constituencies, and the Saskatchewan United Party won 22.7 per cent of the vote in the Lumsden-Morse race, eating into a Sask. Party seat that has historically received north of 70 per cent of the vote share since its creation in 2016.
“The only poll that matters is election day and we’re not taking anything for granted,” NDP Leader Carla Beck stated in an email Thursday.
Beck and the NDP have seen steady growth in terms of support among decided voters, according to the Insightrix poll, picking up nine per cent points of support since September 2023.
“We’re focused on lowering costs for families and getting Saskatchewan out of last place on healthcare and education,” Beck said. “People just want results and a government that gets the basics right.”
But with 80 days until the election, one expert says some polling numbers may matter more than others.
“My immediate reaction is surprise that it’s this close,” Tom McIntosh, a University of Regina professor of politics and international studies, said Thursday.
“I would have expected the Sask. Party to still be on top in terms of the overall percentages. I think they’re likely well behind in the two major cities.”
McIntosh said undecided voters will be a big issue at play, since the ability to win those people into a parties camp could be enough to swing the balance. But still, the Sask. Party support from its rural base appears to be enough to win 31 of 61 seats, according to modelling done by 338Canada. Twenty-nine of those seats would come from outside of Regina and Saskatoon.
The poll also touched on issues of importance among NDP and Sask. Party supporters, highlighting the different priorities between the two camps. Sask. Party voters are worried about inflation and the economy, while NDP voters are focused on health care and education, results indicate. McIntosh said those areas of concern will lead to agendas and policy put forward by the respective parties.
“Which one will resonate with the 28 per cent is the big question,” he said.
The poll was released Wednesday, and, according to Insightrix, 860 randomly selected people chosen from panel members were surveyed between July 23 and 26. The online poll’s margin for error, is “not applicable. However, the margin of error can be estimated to be ±3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 for questions answered by all respondents.”
alsalloum@postmedia.com
