On March 12, the Water Security Agency (WSA) released the spring runoff outlook for 2026. The majority of the province can anticipate near to below normal runoff this spring.
From Kindersley to Assiniboia in the southwest corner, runoff is expected to be well below normal, while eastern Saskatchewan near Yorkton is expected to see above normal conditions.
In fall 2025, most of Saskatchewan experienced below average precipitation, leading to dry conditions at freeze-up. Snowfall so far this winter has been near normal for most of the province, with the north and west central areas receiving above normal precipitation. The southern areas near the Manitoba border are reporting less than normal winter precipitation.
The mountain snowpack in Alberta, which contributes significantly to May and June flows in the Saskatchewan River Basin, is well above normal. If mountain snowpack remains above normal, snowmelt runoff into Lake Diefenbaker is expected to be above normal this year.
Currently, most major water supply reservoirs in southern Saskatchewan, including Lake Diefenbaker and those in the Qu’Appelle River system, are at or above normal levels and are expected to be near normal levels following spring runoff.
The exceptions are McDougald and Harris reservoirs in the southwest, which are below normal. If conditions do not improve, some reservoirs in the Bigstick Basin in the southwest, and Reindeer Lake in the north, may continue to be lower than normal this year. Drier conditions are expected to result in lower flows and lake levels for the Churchill River Basin.
Snowpack in the Churchill River Basin has been near normal. With the dry fall, the runoff response across the basin is expected to be below normal. Flows throughout the Churchill River Basin are below normal for this time of year. With a below normal runoff response
expected, flows are expected to remain below normal into the summer months.
Lac La Ronge is currently near the lower end of its operating range and is currently near 364.05 m. Above normal inflows are needed this spring to bring the lake up to near normal elevations.
WSA will monitor spring conditions as they develop with an eye on southern Alberta’s snowpack. As of late February, the snowpack in the Alberta prairie portion of the basin ranges from below normal to near normal.
