There are no safe bets in life, but I thought predicting a strong NDP showing in Saskatchewan would have been one of them.
Outside of a few outliers like Regina’s Ralph Goodale and Prince Albert’s Gord Kirkby, Saskatchewan Liberals have struggled to get elected in my lifetime, so heading into Monday night’s election I thought the NDP and Conservatives would be contesting 12 of the province’s 13 constituencies, with the Liberals only competitive in the north. I guess it’s a good thing I don’t gamble.
It’s strange to think that Saskatchewan was once such an impenetrable Liberal fortress that the federal party would parachute candidates into the province when they couldn’t win in Ontario.
In the first federal election I covered, NDP candidates brought forward numerous policy proposals, while Liberal candidates told voters those were nice policies, but the NDP would never form government. Their best bet, the candidates told voters, was with the Liberals.
The voters weren’t convinced that first election, but they were last night, or so it seems. In an evening full of surprises, the biggest was watching NDP candidates getting relegated to third place across the province.
In Prince Albert, NDP candidate Virginia Kutzan came a distant third with just 9.3 per cent of the vote. That’s a far cry from the 15.1 per cent Ken MacDougall received in 2021, the 17.4 per cent Harmony Johnson-Harder received in 2019, or the 28.46 per cent Lon Borgerson received in 2015. However, Kutzan’s total was actually one of the best NDP showings in Saskatchewan.
In Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, a riding that was a hotly-contested three-way race in 2021, the NDP’s Doug Racine received only 9.4 per cent of the vote. In Yorkton-Melville, Michaela Krakowetz finished a distant third with 5.5 per cent. On the other side of the province, William Petryk in Battlefords-Lloydminster managed only 4.8 per cent.
But what about the cities? Well, Rachel Loewen Walker had the best showing out of any Saskatchewan federal NDP candidate, receiving 19.1 per cent of the vote, but it was bleak for NDP voters the rest of the way. The NDP cleaned up in Saskatoon and Regina during the provincial election, but on Monday none of their candidates finished higher than third place.
This wasn’t a Saskatchewan phenomenon either. In Northern Manitoba, the NDP’s Niki Ashton had won five straight elections, but went down in defeat to the Liberal’s Rebecca Chartrand. In Hamilton Centre, the NDP’s Matthew Green won elections in 2019 and 2021, receiving 46.16 per cent of the vote and 48.7 per cent respectively. On Monday, he dropped all the way to third behind Liberal Aslam Rana and Conservative Hayden Lawrence.
In total, the NDP finished the night with just seven seats. Not even leader Jagmeet Singh was spared. Like most NDP candidates, he came a distant third in his own riding, with just 18.2 per cent of the vote.
Heavy defeats like this don’t happen if your local candidates are the problem. It speaks to the party’s goals and direction. The truth is, the NDP could have resurrected Tommy Douglas himself to run in each of Canada’s 343 constituencies and they still would have been wiped out on Election Day.
The NDP has some hard questions to ask themselves, and the first one should be ‘why do we exist?’ Political junkies like myself were under the impression the NDP thought there were certain voters the Conservatives and Liberals were ignoring. I was also under the impression the NDP thought Canada’s two largest parties were doing a poor job of addressing certain issues and challenges. After Monday’s election, it’s not apparent that that is the case.
Watching Jagmeet’s Singh’s performance during the federal leaders debate, you would assume the NDP’s sole reason for existing was to sandbag the Conservatives. That probably sits well with Liberals, who benefitted tremendously from the NDP’s collapse. It also probably sits well with voters whose sole identity revolves around dunking on Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. It’s not readily apparent how Canada’s third party self-immolating is great for the country.
Do you like U.S. style elections, where voters have two choices—and only two choices—on the ballot? I don’t. I think it’s healthier to have more than two competitive parties. It keeps the big boys honest, while giving voters more options. But, as journalist Chantal Hebert noted during Monday’s election coverage, that’s where Canada is headed after this election: a two party system.
Canada needs a strong third party that isn’t a separatist party. Ideally, it would have a fourth competitive party too, although Max Bernier’s PPC seems destined for the graveyard of Canadian politics after another poor showing, and the Green Party seems content to spin their tires.
I think Canada would benefit from having two competitive left wing parties and two right wing ones. Previously, one of those left wing parties was the NDP. It’s not anymore, and depending on how the next four years ago, may not be again. Whether you are sad or happy about Monday’s election results, the collapse of everyone but the Liberals and Conservatives should be concerning.
Jason Kerr is the editor of the Prince Albert Daily Herald
