Western Canada report anticipates steady Saskatchewan economy

KAYLE NEIS/KAYLE NEIS (LtoR) Vice President & Head of Inclusion and Resilience Economics at Scotiabank Rebekah Young, Vice-President & Chief Economist at ATB Financial Mark Parsons and Dr. Trevin Stratton speak during a panel during the Westernomics 2025 economic forcast for Western Canada presentation during the Western Canada Economic Forum inside the Hotel Saskatchewan on Wednesday, January 29, 2025 in Regina.

Nykole King

Regina Leader-Post

Saskatchewan’s economic growth is anticipated to be static this year, according to a new first-of-its-kind report for the region.

Deloitte presented the report, Westernomics 2025, to government and industry delegates at the Western Canada Economic Forum in Regina on Wednesday morning.

Saskatchewan’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to remain at 2.3 per cent, which is the same level it has been at for the past two years. The report anticipates that the province’s economy is likely to keep the same speed of growth, but potentially reach above $80 billion this year.

The province’s fastest area of GDP growth is agriculture at 7.8 per cent, notes the report, which also states the construction of the Jansen Potash mine, located about 150 kilometres southeast of Saskatoon, is sustaining the construction sector while global potash prices are forecasted to rise, supporting the mining sector.

Saskatchewan’s manufacturing sector is expected to shrink by 1.5 per cent, matching that of neighbouring provinces.

The Saskatchewan Party has shown a history of “drastically” increasing the value of its exports, including in the manufacturing industry, Premier Scott Moe said to media at Hotel Saskatchewan on Wednesday after he was asked how he will support the manufacturing sector.

He added that any U.S.-imposed tariff on manufactured goods, especially agricultural machinery, would the cost U.S. consumers.

“Yes, it will have an impact on the manufacturing industry here in the short term but it’s going to cost American agricultural producers more,” said Moe.

The U.S. tariff threat loomed large during the conference and the report highlighted uncertainties around if and when it could take effect.

“Not since COVID have we had this much uncertainty in the forecast,” said Mark Parsons, the vice-president and chief economist at ATB Financial, during a panel discussion after the Westernomics report was presented. He added that the report was meant to establish bookends of where the economy could go.

Employment growth is expected to slow to 1 per cent in Saskatchewan as population growth is also anticipated to slow to 1.5 per cent. This is attributed to the Canadian government’s announced reductions in its immigration target, said Trevin Stratton, a partner at Deloitte and its Americas economic advisory leader.

There is a dampened short-term outlook on housing starts in the province, based on the report, which notes significant interest rate cuts are anticipated to “help spur recovery” in the housing market. The rate cuts and stable inflation are both likely to lead to more household spending this year.

Economic Development Regina issued its first assessment of the Greater Regina Area’s quarterly economic health today, providing a score out of 100 for five indicators.

Manufacturing was “weak” with a score of 27, as Regina’s sector saw declining sales in the last three months of 2024, according to a press release from EDR. Despite the low score, EDR added that the sector represents $3.2 billion in sales and will continue to be a major driver of Regina’s economy.

Employment and household affordability had a “moderate” score, housing was “strong” and retail and consumer was “very strong.” The combined score for the first three months of the year was 55 out of 100, which EDR said “reflects strong economic performance and stable growth and manageable risks.”

nyking@postmedia.com

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