Agricultural meteorologist Drew Lerner says uncertainty, not exact forecasts, should guide planning decisions.
Arjun Pillai
Daily Herald
Cultivators attending Crop Talk 2026 will be encouraged to focus less on exact predictions and more on understanding weather risk and uncertainty, according to agricultural meteorologist Drew Lerner
Crop Talk 2026 is scheduled to take place in Prince Albert and is aimed at producers and others involved in agriculture across the region. The event features presentations on weather, crop planning, and other issues affecting the upcoming growing season, and is designed to support decision-making ahead of spring field work.
Lerner, a senior agricultural meteorologist with World Weather Incorporated, is the featured speaker at this year’s event. He said his presentation will look at weather patterns expected to influence the Prairies through the spring and summer growing season, with the goal of helping producers make informed decisions without relying on certainty.
“I am going to address the weather for the spring and summer across the Prairies and try to point out the differing potentials for this growing season,” Lerner said. “The idea is to help producers determine when the best time will be for planting and for doing various activities in the fields, and what kind of moisture to expect over the course of the growing season.”
Lerner said questions from producers tend to focus on rainfall timing, drought risk, and temperature extremes, particularly frost and freeze concerns that can affect planting and harvest decisions.
“How much rain are we going to get, and when is it going to take place? is always one of the first questions,” he said. “There is still a lot of dryness out there, and some notable moisture deficits remain across large agricultural areas of Canada.”
He said those concerns are tied closely to profitability, especially as producers face high input costs, market uncertainty, and insurance considerations.
“Farmers today are up against all kinds of obstacles in being profitable because it is so expensive for the inputs.” Lerner said. “In order to make good decisions about when to plant and what to plant, it is important that they take all of these factors into account.”
Rather than offering exact predictions, Lerner said his approach is to explain the broader weather patterns influencing the region and how they interact.
“No single growing season has just one weather pattern that controls what is going to happen,” he said. “We identify each of the patterns and then show what our best guess is when we take those and put them together.”
Ministry of Agriculture Crop Extension Specialist Allie Noble speaks to local producers at the Conservation Learning Centre’s 2025 Crop Talk. The 2026 Crop Talk is scheduled for Wednesday, Feb. 11 at the Ches Leach Lounge. Registration closes on Feb. 9.
Lerner emphasized that weather discussions should be approached with realism and critical thinking.
“No single weather forecaster has all the answers,” he said. “It is very tempting to listen to a speaker and totally buy into everything they are saying, but people need to come in with an open mind and listen carefully.”
He said his goal is not to tell cultivators what will happen, but to give them enough context to make their own decisions.
“We try to show everything that is going to take place and how these patterns interact, and then give a proposal as to what should take place with a certain level of confidence,” Lerner said. “The people attending can then take that information and factor it into their decision making for the year.”
As producers leave the event, Lerner said he hopes they come away feeling more informed, event if uncertainty remains.
“I think they will feel much better about what expectations are for the growing season even if there are some conflicting weather patterns to consider,” he said. “Just knowing that those conflicts exist helps people determine how much confidence to put into official forecasts.”
Ultimately, Lerner said the value of events like Crop Talk lies in learning how weather influences agriculture locally and globally.
“The biggest takeaway is how can one take this information and make it useful for themselves,” he said.
Crop Talk 2026 will take place on Wednesday, Feb. 11, from 8:30 a.m. to noon at the Ches Leach Lounge at the Art Hauser Centre in Prince Albert. The agenda includes sessions on local agriculture research updates, pests to watch for in 2026, programs available for agriculture producers, and ecological and cultural strategies for weed management, along with Lerner’s weather presentation. The event is free to attend, with registration required by Feb. 9.
arjun.pillai@paherald.sk.ca
