Rochelle Baker
Local Journalism Initiative Reporter
Canada’s National Observer
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May isn’t worried about getting squeezed out of the riding she has comfortably held since 2011.
May approaches each election as a job interview focused on her track record of effectiveness as party leader and service to her constituents, she said
“I’m not afraid of anything and have deep faith in the values that make us Canadian and make us Greens.”
Speculation she’ll lose her seat is based on fear rather than facts and the party’s own polling in the riding shows otherwise, she said.
Voter concern over which party can best tackle the economic uncertainty and threats Canada faces from the Trump administration has drained support for NDP, Bloc Québécois and Greens, the latter of which is polling under three per cent nationally.
That’s a similar popular vote expectation as the last election delivered. In that case, 2.3 per cent of the vote secured the Greens’ two seats — May’s BC Saanich-Gulf Islands riding and Mike Morrice’s Kitchener Centre in Ontario.
Canada 338, which doesn’t conduct local polls but rather extrapolates national numbers, currently suggests May has a negligible lead over the Conservatives with both tied for a third of the vote, with the Liberals grabbing a further 25 per cent in Saanich-Gulf Islands.
However, May said Green polling in the riding shows her support is much higher.
Surveys in November and again in the final week of March show May is sitting steady at about 40 per cent of the vote. Morrice continues to lead Kitchener Centre and former Green MP, Paul Manly, is a close second for the run in the Nanaimo-Ladysmith riding, the party’s polling suggests.
BC pollster Mario Canseco, president of Research Co., agreed voters shouldn’t over rely on information from seat aggregator sites that offer less definitive projections. Actual polls rely on more rigorous sample sizes, time frames and methodology, he said.
The sites provide interesting information, but don’t capture local nuances like an incumbent’s popularity or the current political dynamics unique to each riding. NDP candidates on Vancouver Island, a traditional stronghold for the party, likely share the same frustrations as the Greens, Canseco said.
“It must be disheartening that voters assume you don’t stand a chance because of the way the national numbers are looking.”
The Greens also face a new hurdle after being denied the opportunity on Wednesday to take part in the upcoming leadership debates.
Currently, national polling shows the Liberals set to win a majority, or at least a minority government, with the Conservatives likely forming a strong opposition.
With democracy under threat, having a spectrum of voices and a “Green” presence in Parliament is key, said May who co-leads the Green Party with Jonathan Pedneault.
Green leaders stick to their values while other parties’ commitments “slide back and forth” on issues like the climate emergency or protecting trans, Indigenous and women’s rights, May said.
“We have stood up on a lot of issues other people don’t want to touch and that we never waver on,” May said, adding she was the first federal party leader to call out Trump’s bullying.
May said her strength is working across party lines, to repeatedly shape legislation or get private members’ bills passed, like banning whales in captivity, and most recently, in support of environmental justice.
After 14 years on the job, May says she hasn’t resorted to heckling other MPs, “though sometimes I’m pretty sorely tempted.”
“I see our role as elevating the decorum of the place,” said May
“I’ve always felt that one of the defining values of being Canadian is the ability to disagree without being disagreeable. And we try as Green MPs to exemplify that.”
May is revelling in the Team Canada “Elbows Up” political approach to buffer the impacts of new and existing tariffs, rather than the polarized approach to politics illustrated in the US and recently in Canada.
“We’re facing an uncertain future and the only thing we can control is working together,” she said.
May noted she’s beat national odds and won the Saanich-Gulf Islands before — in a riding that historically voted blue. With Liberals leading nationally, voters determined to vote strategically to stop Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre from forming government need to look at who best represents their individual riding, rather than voting for their second or third choice, May said.
“Every Liberal and NDP vote in Saanich–Gulf Islands is an assist to the Conservative candidate,” May said.
Unlike other elected members, Green MPs are free to advocate for constituents’ needs and priorities because they’re not subject to a “party whip” system, May said.
“We don’t tell our MPs how to vote. We trust them to represent their constituents,” she said. “We believe in grassroots democracy.”
Rochelle Baker / Local Journalism Initiative / Canada’s National Observer
