Michael Joel-Hansen
Saskatoon StarPhoenix
Farmers in the United States will be the ones absorbing any additional expenses if Donald Trump’s planned tariffs take effect next month, says Nutrien Ltd. chief executive Ken Seitz.
“The costs of this would be borne by the U.S. farmer; the tariff cost and tariff impact will be passed onto the U.S. farmer,” he said on a fourth-quarter earnings call with analysts, adding that American farmers are very dependent on Canadian potash. “Canadians supply over 80 per cent of that market.”
Seitz said agricultural trade and food security depend on the movement of goods between the two countries, so Nutrien has been talking with elected representatives in both Canada and the U.S. about the importance of having a free flow of agricultural goods.
“We struck up a cross-functional team, which extends across our government relations group, our commercial organization, to make sure we can serve our U.S. customers in the way that we always have,” he said.
Saskatoon-based Nutrien said it earned US$118 million in the fourth quarter ending Dec. 31, 2024, which was a 33 per cent drop from US$176 million a year earlier, with the decline mainly due to lower prices for potash.
It had adjusted earnings of US$1.8 billion from potash, which were lower than the US$2.4 billion earned last year, despite higher sales volumes. Its earnings per share of 31 cents U.S. missed analysts’ average estimate of 35 cents U.S., according to data compiled by London Stock Exchange Group PLC.
Earnings for fiscal 2024 were down 45 per cent to US$700 million, while sales were down 11 per cent to US$29.1 billion. The company increased its quarterly dividend to 54.5 cents U.S. per share, with Seitz noting it returned US$1.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases last year.
Nutrien also said 35 per cent of the potash it mined in 2024 was done using automated technologies. The company said this improved safety and efficiency, which led to a reduction in costs. The level of potash produced in 2024 was the company’s highest on record.
On the retail side, Nutrien reported increased earnings of US$1.7 billion, which it attributed to decreasing expenses and higher product margins.
Nutrien is expecting potash demand to increase globally, but said there’s the potential for supply to tighten due to fewer operations coming online and operational challenges in important markets.
“Our annual potash sales volume guidance of 13.6 to 14.4 million tonnes is consistent with our global shipments outlook and accounts for some level of uncertainty regarding the potential impact of tariffs on Canadian exports,” Nutrien chief financial officer Mark Thompson said on the call.
However, one potential player that could take up some sales is Belarus. If sanctions on it are lifted, Seitz said one million tonnes of product could come back on the market, but he added that producers there face a number of hurdles that could drive up their costs — port access being a major one.
“We think that happens slowly over time; we think that it continues to be more expensive for the Belarusians,” he said.
Seitz said Russian potash has been back on the market for some time and wasn’t ever sanctioned.
