Premier Scott Moe says Canada is closer to a trade agreement with the United States, but the experience of northern Saskatchewan shows how even a relatively small tariff exposure can have a much larger impact on individual industries and workers.
Moe spoke to reporters at the Lake Country Co-op Leisure Centre in Prince Albert on Wednesday after taking part in a virtual meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney and Canada’s other premiers on the ongoing negotiations.
He said that as recently as a day or two ago there appeared to be “no path forward in sight,” but that changed following calls between Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump. Moe said he believes the two countries have arrived at a broad agreement, with negotiators still working through the details.
“The 50 per cent tariffs on $28 billion of Canadian goods, which would have an impact on Saskatchewan industries, is not coming into effect,” Moe said.
Carney’s public statement Tuesday was more cautious. He said substantial progress had been made, but important work remained. The federal government said the United States agreed to postpone implementation of the 50 per cent tariffs through the end of Aug. 21.
A White House proclamation formally moved the effective date of the tariffs to 12:01 a.m. Eastern on Aug. 22, describing the move as a three-day suspension while negotiations continue.
For Saskatchewan, Moe said about five per cent of the provincial economy is currently affected by tariffs. He said that would have increased to about six per cent if the additional 50 per cent tariffs were imposed.
But he said those province-wide numbers do not tell the whole story.
“Those industries that have been impacted by certain sectoral tariffs, that impact is 100 per cent,” Moe said. “We’ve seen that with the closure of mills. We’ve seen that impact on steel and the manufacturing industry.”
Moe said reductions to those existing tariffs are important for the jobs tied to affected industries.
“In that space of the five per cent of our economy that is being impacted, it is imperative that we are able to negotiate some reductions,” he said. “Imperative to those jobs that families have across this province.”
That distinction is already visible in northern Saskatchewan.
Carrier Forest Products announced in July that it would indefinitely curtail production at its Big River sawmill beginning Oct. 16, affecting approximately 117 employees. In its July 16 statement, the company cited persistent weak lumber markets, increased cross-border financing costs and reduced timber availability following the previous year’s wildfires.
The provincial government later told the Daily Herald that the curtailment was “a direct result of the unjustified U.S. tariffs and duties, a weak pricing environment and a falling exchange rate.”
The province said it had deployed the Canada-Saskatchewan Rapid Response Team to support the 117 affected workers, their families and the Big River area.
The pressure on forestry is not new.
Speaking at a Prince Albert and District Chamber of Commerce event in March, Moe described the forestry industry as being in a “tough spot” because of tariffs on products entering the United States, while saying he remained optimistic about the industry’s longer-term future in a “post Trump era.”
Forestry’s struggles also stand in contrast to another part of northern Saskatchewan’s resource economy.
Moe was in northern Saskatchewan last week for the groundbreaking of NexGen Energy’s Rook I uranium project. At the event, he said the development could create not only jobs but “lifelong careers” for people in northern communities, while strengthening Saskatchewan’s role in global energy security.
On Wednesday, Moe said Saskatchewan’s relationship with the United States on uranium, potash, oil and other critical resources remains strong, but argued the province should continue finding customers elsewhere.
He said 90 to 95 per cent of Saskatchewan oil currently finds its way to the United States, while a large portion of Saskatchewan potash is also sold there. He said uranium from Saskatchewan’s two operating mines currently powers about one in 17 homes in the United States.
At the same time, Moe pointed to opportunities in countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic as Saskatchewan looks to broaden its export markets.
That need for markets outside Saskatchewan also came up when the Daily Herald asked Moe what his government is doing to encourage residents to buy more Saskatchewan-made food and grocery products.
Moe said the province supports local production and purchasing, but Saskatchewan produces far more than its population can consume.
“We export seven out of every $10 that we produce,” he said. “We do need access to international markets. We do need access to the rest of our nation, to other Canadians. It is how we generate wealth in this province.”
Moe said Saskatchewan now exports to 163 countries and argued Canada needs to continue expanding access to world markets through railways, ports and pipelines.
Despite his optimism about the talks, Moe acknowledged that whatever emerges will not restore the trade relationship Canada had before the latest disputes.
“This is not an easy conversation, and this is, you know, not a perfect deal, and it’s not even a deal that we had two or three years ago,” Moe said.
“But I do believe it is as strong a deal as we can have moving forward, given the current circumstances.”
arjun.pillai@paherald.sk.ca
