Larissa Kurz
Regina Leader-Post
As the Saskatchewan government prepares to deliver its 2026-27 budget, University of Regina economics professor Jason Childs says it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see a deficit of $1 billion reported in March.
“It’s kind of the way things have gone again (this fiscal year),” Childs said in a recent interview with the Regina Leader-Post. “We got hit by two pretty potent shocks that would impact revenue: the canola tariffs and the oil prices. We did see the economy kind of slow down.”
The province has not yet released its third-quarter financial report for 2025-26, but it has faced criticism over seeking an additional $654.7 million via special warrants on Feb. 13 as a bridge to finish out the last six weeks of the fiscal year.
Saskatchewan’s NDP lambasted the measure, suggesting it puts the province on track to tally a $1.08-billion deficit despite pledging a $12.1-million surplus last spring.
“Budgets almost never match reality, but it does happen that you miss by quite a bit on occasion,” Childs said.
Finance Minister Jim Reiter was not available for an interview Friday to comment on current deficit projections, which were at $427 million as of November when the mid-year forecast was tabled.
An emailed statement from a government spokesperson instead promised a “fulsome update” on Saskatchewan’s third-quarter finances when the 2026-27 budget is presented in mid-March.
Even without the report, Childs believes it’s reasonable to say that Saskatchewan’s economy has been “beaten up.” That’s due to oil prices being down along with the impact of China’s previous canola tariffs, which are expected to be reduced by March 1, and a spike in unemployment rates.
“Those are big problems and that’s going to hurt our revenue side,” he said.
The cost to deliver health care — one of two factors Reiter cited as causing the mid-year deficit — is also still on the rise, making up more than half of the $654.7 million in top-up expenses filed earlier this month.
According to orders-in-council documents, the Ministry of Health is to receive an additional $338 million, including $284.8 million for the Saskatchewan Health Authority.
Also among the higher numbers, another $103.8 million goes to the Ministry of Agriculture, including $99.1 million for the AgriStability program, and $75 million to the Ministry of Social Services for its income support programs. AgriStability is a financial assistance program for producers in the event of significant farming income losses.
A statement from the government on Friday said the additional funds for the health authority are to address “higher-than-budgeted” volumes of patient use that created additional costs for staffing, medication and surgical supplies.
AgriStability’s funding injection is in part due to the winter forecast from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and the decision to expand the program in 2025, which includes doubling payment caps to help livestock producers with feed shortages.
A $33.5-million top-up for the Ministry of Education includes the province’s $27-million settlement with survivors of the Île-à-la-Crosse residential school, reached earlier in the fall.
Childs said it isn’t inherently unusual or alarming to see governments seeking top-ups through special warrants this way, but it should be considered in the lens of a bigger trend.
Saskatchewan has now sought special warrants for three years in a row — $654.7 million in 2026, $923.1 million in 2025 and $750 million in 2024.
“It needs to be seen, at some level, both provincially and federally, as an admission that ‘Yeah, we missed (on our budget),’” Childs said.
NDP Opposition Leader Carla Beck says the growing projected deficit leaves a sour taste for taxpayers, especially with SaskPower and SGI rates increasing around four per cent for the next two years.
“This government was dishonest with the people of Saskatchewan and they’ve broken their promise of a balanced budget,” Beck said in a news release. “How big is the deficit? The people of Saskatchewan deserve to know.”
